Few elections will be easier to understand than 2022: It’s the economy

Americans have seen their real incomes fall for 18 months as Biden inflation pushes price increases to 40-year highs, and incomes fail to keep pace.[i]  That’s producing real pain and understandable anger.

In response, Democrats offered the cynically named “Inflation Reduction Act of 2022.” The nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office estimated that the bill would have no statistically significant effect on inflation.[ii] The Penn Wharton Budget Model also estimated that the bill would not improve the inflation outlook.[iii]  The  Tax Foundation concluded that the legislation “may worsen inflation by constraining the economy’s productive capacity.” They estimated the bill would result in a loss of 29,000 full-time equivalent jobs and a 0.2% reduction in GDP. [iv]

Polls indicate that voters believe the “Inflation Act” will worsen inflation rather than improve economic conditions.[v]  With prices squeezing family budgets, 65 percent of Americans say the economy is worsening, and 48 percent blame Democratic policies.[vi] [vii]

Data for individual states demonstrates how local policies impact economic conditions. Republican-led states, on average, have recovered more than 109 percent of their lost jobs since the pandemic began, compared to just over 95 percent for Democratic-run states.

Through September, nine of the top 10 states for jobs recovered since the coronavirus pandemic began are led by Republican governors, and all ten states have Republican-controlled legislatures. The top three states for jobs recovered are all Republican-led.

Sixteen of the 23 states with more jobs now than when the pandemic hit are Republican-led. These are Alabama, Arizona, Arkansas, Florida, Georgia, Idaho, Indiana, Missouri, Montana, Nebraska, South Carolina, South Dakota, Tennessee, Texas, Utah, and Virginia.[viii]

Out of the top 21 states with the lowest unemployment rates, 17 are led by Republican governors and 17 have Republican-controlled legislatures. 10 of the top 12 states with the lowest unemployment rates are led by Republicans.[ix]

The average unemployment rate for the nation’s 28 states with Republican governors is just 3.0 percent. Democratic-led states have an average unemployment rate of more than half a percentage point higher, 3.7 percent.

Under Governor Hogan’s leadership, Maryland reversed the state’s economic climate. During Governor O’Malley’s 96 months in office (covering an entire economic cycle), Maryland created only 5,000 jobs or just two per day. [x]

After taking office, Governor Hogan set out to create a more business-friendly future for Maryland by bringing tax relief, balanced budgets, and long-term fiscal responsibility to the state. He eliminated or reformed more than 14,100 regulations, reduced or eliminated 250 fees across state government, and cut tolls at every state facility for the first time in more than 50 years. Governor Hogan has already delivered more than $2.5 billion in tax, toll, and fee relief for hardworking middle-class families, retirees, and small businesses.

As a result of these efforts, Governor Hogan grew Maryland’s private sector, creating jobs and turning the state economy around. The governor’s first year in office was the most successful in total job creation in a decade and private-sector job growth in the last 16 years, and one of the biggest economic turnarounds in America. Despite the progress, all too often, the Governor has faced a legislature determined to follow the most destructive economic policies of Blue State America.

The 2022 election comparison is clear; a choice between economic policies that work and those that do not.

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[i] https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-10-13/core-us-inflation-rises-to-40-year-high-securing-big-fed-hike

[ii] Inflation Reduction Act: Comparing CBO and PWBM Estimates — Penn Wharton Budget Model (upenn.edu)

[iii] Senate-Passed Inflation Reduction Act: Estimates of Budgetary and Macroeconomic Effects — Penn Wharton Budget Model (upenn.edu)

[iv] Inflation Reduction Act Tax Changes: Details & Analysis | Tax Foundation

[v] https://morningconsult.com/2022/08/17/inflation-reduction-act-reduce-prices-irs-survey/

[vi] GOP keeps lead for House control, Democrats’ momentum stalls amid economy worries — CBS News Battleground Tracker poll – CBS News

[vii] GOP keeps lead for House control, Democrats’ momentum stalls amid economy worries — CBS News Battleground Tracker poll – CBS News

[viii] https://www.bls.gov/web/laus.supp.toc.htm

[ix] Unemployment Rates for States (bls.gov)

[x] https://www.forbes.com/sites/travisbrown/2015/12/22/the-truth-about-martin-omalleys-stellar-record-in-maryland/